As we approach an American election that will go down to the wire, with one state potentially deciding the outcome, Andrew Dunne, account director with FINN Partners, explores key campaign indicators and dynamics for Election Day 2024 and what the results could mean for Irish and European businesses

This American election is like no other, it has captured the minds of the Western world’s political anoraks and offered gripping political theatre.

Multiple assassination attempts and a dramatic change in candidate for the Democratic Party makes this contest unlike any other.

FINN Partners has developed a guide to US elections 2024, the full analysis can be found below.

Ground rules

Trump v Harris is already the most remarkable election for a generation, and if polling averages are to be believed, it will likely be the closest since the controversial contest between Bush v Gore in 2000, which saw the US Supreme Court decide the final outcome of the race.

The key number is 270, the number of Electoral College (EC) votes required to win the Presidency.

For all intents and purposes, the popular vote should be ignored.

It is worth noting that in modern times, the EC tends to favour Republicans, take for example 2016 where Hillary Clinton won 48.2% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.1% and still lost the EC by 304 to 227.

In reality, only 7 states truly matter in this race; Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

The rest are far outside the margin of error in favour of one party or the other.

Pennsylvania, with its 19 EC votes, is commonly seen as the ‘hinge state’ in this race.

The most ‘straightforward’ and realistic path to 270 for the Democrats likely necessitates winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, alongside Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Harris will also by default be seeking to expand a victory to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. 

The Trump campaign will be hoping their most straightforward path to the White House runs through Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, bringing them to precisely 270 EC votes with the potential to expand the map in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Additionally, control of the US House of Representatives and Senate are up for grabs on November 5^th, key to ensuring a successful domestic agenda for any President.

What it means for Ireland and Europe

For Irish and European businesses, this race represents the possibility of a sharp divergence in trade and corporate tax windfalls, the EU faces a potential isolationist Trump administration which has pledged to place tariffs on European goods, a step which could mark the beginning of an escalatory trade war.

Meanwhile, Harris represents the status quo to many EU businesses, with some lingering sectoral discomfort at the domestic tax incentives she is likely to support, reminiscent of those offered under the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act championed by the Biden-Harris Administration.

Furthermore, the future of Ukraine and Europe’s security interests may also depend upon the outcome of November 5^th, with Trump having placed partial blame on Ukraine for the war and refusing to say whether or not he wanted Ukraine to win, simply replying “I want the war to stop”.

The possibility of further Russian advances due to a shortfall in Ukrainian supplies may have a significant impact upon regional food security and create additional cost pressures for European businesses reminiscent of those in 2022.

Photo: US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (R) shakes hands with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Read the full FINN Partners guide to Election Day 2024 below: