Seahawks vs Rams Odds, Spread | NFL Week 11

Seahawks vs Rams odds have Los Angeles favored by either 1.5 or 2 points on the spread while the game total over/under can be found at 45.5 or 46. I’m not deterred by the big shift on the spread toward Los Angeles and I am backing the hosts for my Seahawks vs Rams pick.

The Rams (3-6) return from the bye desperate to get back into the NFC playoff race. Luckily, they’ll have Matthew Stafford back under center after he missed their last game with a thumb injury. The first step in their uphill climb is beating the rival Seahawks (6-3). Seattle received positive injury news prior to kickoff at SoFi Stadium as wide receiver Tyler Lockett is active.

Historical trends point to value on the spread in this NFC West divisional matchup, which plays into my Seahawks vs Rams prediction for NFL Week 11.

Seahawks vs Rams Prediction

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Seahawks and Rams match up statistically:

Seahawks vs. Rams DVOA Breakdown

Overall DVOA	11	24
Pass DVOA	9	18
Rush DVOA	19	25

Overall DVOA	15	20
Pass DVOA	19	23
Rush DVOA	11	16

Some teams simply have an opponent’s number, and that’s been the case for the Rams against the Seahawks under Sean McVay.

Los Angeles has been a bettor’s dream in this rivalry, going 10-4 against the spread. It hasn’t been particularly close, either, as the Rams comfortably covered by an average of 5.3 points. This matchup has been especially lopsided over the past four-plus seasons. The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings and have covered in six straight games.

McVay has enjoyed success against the NFC West in general. L.A. is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year against the division, covering against all three of its rivals. That shouldn’t come as a surprise considering McVay’s 25-16-1 all time in the division.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, have struggled mightily against the NFC West. They are just 11-17 ATS dating back to 2019 and are 1-5 in their last six games. They’ve been particularly bad on the road, going 3-8 over their last 11 games. Meanwhile, Geno Smith has never covered against the Rams (0-3).

All those trends might’ve amounted to nothing if Stafford were sidelined for a second straight game. Fortunately, his thumb healed up over the bye and he’s off the injury report, which is unfortunate news for Seattle.

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Stafford went off back in Week 1, completing 24-of-38 passes for 334 yards in his best game of the season. The Rams more than doubled Seattle’s offensive output that day, totaling 426 yards compared to 180 by the Seahawks.

Oh, and by the way, they did so without Cooper Kupp, who has enjoyed success against Seattle over the years. He’s averaging 5.8 catches and 70 yards in 10 games against them while hauling in five touchdowns. He had his best game against the Seahawks the last time he played them, catching nine passes for 136 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Finally, the Seahawks may be 6-3 on the year, but they’ve had the NFL’s fourth-easiest schedule to date. They’ve largely feasted on bottom dwellers like the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals and Commanders. Meanwhile, it’s been a totally different story for the Rams, who’ve faced the league’s third-hardest schedule.

The Rams may not be elite, but they’re head-and shoulders above the teams Seattle’s fattened up against.

I’m playing the numbers here and I’m taking the Rams as a 1-point home ‘dog. McVay’s success covering 71.4% of the time in 14 games against Seattle is simply too overwhelming to ignore.

I also like the Rams coming off the bye. As Evan Abrams notes in this week’s betting primer, teams playing on extended rest that lost at least three straight are 133-103-4 ATS in their next game over the last 20 years.

A healthy Stafford should put up plenty of points against Seattle’s average-at-best defense. I expect this to be a high-scoring affair, but in the end I’ll back McVay’s crew to do what they’ve done time and time again, which is cover against the Seahawks.

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