Golf betting tips: PGA Championship final round

1pt Justin Rose to win the PGA Championship at 33/1

1pt Robert MacIntyre to win the PGA Championship at 40/1

2pts Glover and Noren to win their two-balls at 9/4 (General)

2pts Thomas and Matsuyama to win their two-balls at 11/5 (William Hill)

1pt four-fold Glover, Noren, Thomas, Matsuyama at 9/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Three rounds into the PGA Championship, and Valhalla has done exactly as promised, exactly as threatened. Softened beyond sub-air by rain in the build-up, this course has one defence and that’s thick, lush rough. Avoiding the worst of it sets you up to score and with greens like pillows, even coming from it can be overcome from time to time.

As Justin Thomas predicted, this makes separation difficult. Every time Xander Schauffele has looked like creating it, first on Friday night and then midway through Saturday’s third round, he has stalled. We’re left with 15 players covered by five and joint-leaders the market is finding difficult to split at around 5/2.

Schauffele was shorter than Collin Morikawa pre-tournament but the pervading wisdom is that he doesn’t win golf tournaments, at least not often enough or with the conviction of Morikawa. That’s why they’re now refactored as equals, but I was impressed with the way Schauffele recovered from a double-bogey which came courtesy of a pulled approach shot, and he’d be given a marginal edge.

I certainly share the view that his finishing efforts have too often been limp but he was clear second best to a generational talent last week and that experience might serve him really well. Facing Morikawa should be a less daunting prospect and Schauffele’s powerful long-game has been exceptional for the most part. He’s only made two mistakes in three days and that reputation of his might not last the night. He’d be the pick of the favourites.

Third-placed Sahith Theegala has never been in this situation before but innocence was bliss for Wyndham Clark at last summer’s US Open. Theegala though has relied on a few moments of short-game magic to get this far, as has Shane Lowry, on track for career-best putting stats. I wrote pre-tournament that he’d go close if you stumbled into a better week on the greens but won’t be alone in expecting that club to cool off today.

Of greater interest are Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland, both frequent major contenders over the past few years. Both have put in rounded performances so far and you can almost see the confidence building in Hovland, but from two back of two elite players, he’ll need his restored swing to hold up flawlessly if he’s to capture his first major championship.

At the prices, I’m mote tempted by JUSTIN ROSE and ROBERT MACINTYRE, who play together as they did at the Ryder Cup. That could be a big factor for both of them. When Rose won his US Open, Luke Donald was his playing partner. When MacIntyre returned to form last week, he spoke of how beneficial it was to play with Ryan Fox over the first two rounds.

Anything that can put either man at greater ease has to be considered beneficial and they could do a decent impersonation of Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson, who were high-fiving each other while trying to hunt down Rory McIlroy here a decade ago.

MacIntyre remember has beaten top-class opposition to win the Italian Open with a storming final round and he would’ve done it again in the Scottish Open but for McIlroy’s against-all-odds finish. This is the ideal position for a player prone to wild swings in form but who is, as he showed in the Sunday singles in Rome, capable of standing tall.

Rose meanwhile has a handy knack of remaining relevant on the biggest stage and has got better with every round. It must be stressed that neither man is a likely winner – odds of 33/1 and 40/1 tell you as much – but they could just sneak into this if the leaders stall somewhat. I’m happy to take that chance to small, split stakes, rather than back Schauffele at 5/2.

The best morning two-ball bets are LUCAS GLOVER (1525 BST) and ALEX NOREN (1625), who are up against Alex Bjork and Doug Ghim respectively.

Glover brought a solid bank of form with him into the event and should have too much for Bjork, who continues to rely on his putter. I’m happy to keep opposing him and Glover can win this comfortably if he continues to putt to a decent standard himself.

Noren meanwhile is known for his fast finishes and another looks entirely plausible after only a cool putter kept him from going much lower on Saturday. As that’s typically a strength we can probably rely on a good deal of improvement from the Swede, who is quietly playing some of the best golf of his career.

Later on, JUSTIN THOMAS (1835) will be relishing a free shot at his third PGA Championship from five back, especially as he’ll be roared on by the locals as a Kentucky boy.

With Tony Finau’s putter predictably cooling since a red-hot start to the tournament, Thomas can outscore his playing partner and may yet have a say in this if he can produce something similar to Shane Lowry’s front-nine in round three.

Final, HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (1735) can land top Japanese bets by beating two-ball partner Ryo Hisatsune, who may or may not find it helpful to play alongside his idol in this final round.

Hisatsune burst through the field yesterday to sit one behind Matsuyama overall, but the class of the former Masters champion can see him over the line. He looks a generously priced at 8/11.

Posted at 0910 BST on 19/05/24

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